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Micheal Hoexter: An “All of the Above” Energy Policy Concedes the Future
Micheal Hoexter: An “All of the Above” Energy Policy Concedes the Future
The dominant theme in President Obama’s 2011 State of the Union address was “winning the future”.
california,
california,
United States
(pr4links.com)
27/07/2011
The dominant theme in President Obama’s 2011 State of the Union address was “winning the future”. As has become typical during Obama’s tenure in office, the speech and the metaphor selected seemed designed to avoid making a clear and decisive statement and to make peace with his Republican opponents. However if we take the President’s metaphor seriously, Obama’s energy policies seem more likely to continue conceding the future to other nations who are making real choices in the area of energy. Rather than take the initiative as he could as President, Obama has chosen in energy to make friends with almost every aspect of the energy industry, green and, in particular, brown.
Choosing “All of the Above”
The 2008 Energy flow diagram for the US (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) shows the dominance of fossil energy (bottom three flows) in the US energy use system. A transformation of this energy flow diagram towards sustainable sources of energy will be impossible without aggressive federal government policy
While I had hopes that President Obama would significantly change our approach to energy in favor of sustainable energy choices, as it turns out the best description for his approach would be that it is an “all of the above” energy policy. Not as aggressively retrograde as his predecessor, George W. Bush, Obama has tried to show that he is not only a reliable friend to the oil and gas lobbies but also is willing to “throw a bone to” the renewable energy industry and public transit supporters. He has made a cautious foray into high speed rail though not bold enough to insure that HSR has a secure funding base. His administration provided loan guarantees to large renewable energy projects that were already in the pipelines. He seems to treat energy and transport alternatives as, for the most part being representative of a larger political “constituency” which he courts by offering more or less support for their presumed favorite projects or ideas.
The problem with the apparent equivalence in this political strategy is that it ignores the real-world physical energy balance, the depletion curve of fossil energy, and emissions of US society as well as political and market power differences between these constituencies and industry segments. Oil, gas and coal companies are the dominant energy companies on the planet and have considerable power in Washington as well as beyond the Beltway in the real economy. In order for there to be actual equality between these different groups, if that is even a desirable outcome, government institutions would need to favor the “infant industries” of renewable energy and energy efficiency to compensate for years of subsidy and centuries of precedence in the energy and transport sectors for fossil energy. Our society has to an overwhelming degree been built around oil, gas and coal.
Another approach, that is not even on the table, would be, rather than play to one or the other constituency, to build an energy policy based on the real geological, geopolitical, environmental, and social factors that condition energy availability and energy use. Such a policy would favor renewable energy and energy efficiency but would also challenge these segments to radically scale up production and reduce emissions sooner rather than later. Furthermore only government policy can push the now not-inexpensive energies of the future down the cost curve.
Beyond trying to project the image of not playing favorites between industry segments, Obama seems to view energy very much in “Left-Right” terms. The 2009 stimulus package had some promising financing for renewable energy projects (optically “Left”) but these have not so far turned into a durable renewable energy support policy beyond the existing status quo. In March 2010, Obama announced plans to open new areas to offshore drilling, clearly an effort to blunt the “drill baby drill” mantra of the Republicans (optically “Right”). Natural gas drilling and fracking continues with the addition of a new drilling safety panel which seems to be an effort to address pro- and anti-fracking lobbies. Energy efficiency, the no-brainer energy solution, has been given some support but is not highlighted. An ultra-low energy retrofit of the White House, for instance, is inconceivable within Obama’s current political strategy because it would seem too “Left”, too hippy-ish.
The US High Speed Rail Association projects that its 2030 vision linking most US states by 200 mph high speed rail links would cost $600 Billion dollars. These rail lines would serve "Red" and "Blue" states alike. The relatively cautious approach of the Obama Administration focusing on a few projects does not communicate the potential of high speed and electric rail more generally: it functions as insulation against oil shocks in a nation extremely vulnerable to the price and availability of oil.
Of a piece with this picture is the level and type of support offered to, for instance, high speed rail projects. Obama “slipped in” $8 billion dollars for 11 high speed rail projects but which in itself would not buy a single high speed rail route on its own. While this was the single largest investment in high speed rail in the US, it pales in comparison with investments made by China,France or Spain in HSR or, for that matter, the comprehensive vision of the US High Speed Rail Association.
The lack of “bigness” in Obama’s support made it, I believe, much easier to attack from the Right. Not as many constituencies could be served by the smaller package to be divided between 11 projects. But more damaging, was the lack of a comprehensible vision for the American people about what HSR was about, as a sustainable alternative to regional air travel throughout the US. If Obama had presented a multi-year plan to fund any the USHSRA’s 2020 or 2030 vision, he might have had to fight more with Republicans but at the same time, there would be a greater understanding of the utility of having an HSR network rather than single lines that serve fewer constituencies. In an effort to avoid conflict, the point of the entire effort was not so easy to communicate and win political points or inspire hope.
In energy efficiency and energy conservation, which are together possibly the greenest energy measures, President Obama has introduced some programs that are “rational” but are also not world-leading in their ambition. The best publicized portions of his energy saving plans have been higher fuel efficiency standards for trucks and cars but these are not world-beating. He has introduced some sizeable tax incentives for electric vehicles. He announced an initiative to increase energy efficiency in commercial buildings 20% by 2020 which is better than before but by no means a “stretch” goal. Strategically these initiatives have gotten buried in the news cycle as the President appears to want to show himself as “not a liberal” which the Right wing associates with energy efficiency and conservation.
Climate Bill Hangover or Ideology?
Many of the energy and environmental initiatives and policy direction of the first year of the Obama Administration were packed in the ACESA climate bill that barely passed by the House of Representatives but which in a modified version stalled in the Senate. The lack of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate made the passage of the even less ambitious Senate bill impossible. At the time, the dysfunction of the US Senate was held responsible by many commentators for its failure, though some noted that Obama was not campaigning heavily for either bill. The seeming diffidence of Obama in these matters was in retrospect striking, though the standard of comparison in 2009 was the backwards-looking Bush Administration, so by contrast Obama has been praised as the “greenest” President to date.
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About
My name is Michael Hoexter and I work in the marketing of energy efficient products and services and renewable energy in California. I’m a LEED-AP, have a background in psychology (Ph.D. from Michigan), software development and sales. My Green Thoughts blog and site, is a place to read about and discuss issues related to clean energy policy, the marketing and selling of greener products and services as well as the technical issues that impact the market. My commitment is to connect our langua
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